Publications

@misc{Nordling2023ICPMMT,

title = {Forecasting Mega Trends Impact on Specialisation and Additive Manufacturing in Four Future Scenarios},

author = {Torbjörn E M Nordling},

url = {https://icpmmt.org/},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-05-01},

booktitle = {The 8th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2023), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 19-21, 2023},

pages = {1},

publisher = {National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan},

abstract = {The dominating trend in manufacturing from early making of stone tools 2.5 million years ago until today is specialisation. Individuals, corporations, and regions are specialising in the making of a particular set of products or parts. Specialisation is the key enabler of learning and labour productivity gains. Additive manufacturing is a recent trend that, in part, counter specialisation. To some additive manufacturing is synonymous with 3D printing, but I argue, based on the underlaying principle, that e.g. modular building also is additive manufacturing. To me any deposition and joining of material or blocks is additive manufacturing. A hallmark of additive manufacturing is that it does not require specialised labour—at least not once the machine and designs used are made. This means that additive manufacturing machines/plants can be placed almost everywhere. Moreover, the total cost of the end customer is reduced by placing such manufacturing near the consumption. 

Energy, knowledge, and transportation set the basis for both specialised and additive manufacturing. I define four future scenarios based on the former two: (A) energy abundance and open standards, (B) energy abundance with strong intellectual property enforcement, (C) energy scarcity and open standards, and (D) energy scarcity with strong intellectual property enforcement. To set the stage for analysis and discussion, I present historic examples and current mega trends that lead to the scenarios. E.g. energy abundance based on solar, wind, and hydro will most probably be achieved by countries that let the market forces guide energy investments based on current trends. The shrinking working age population make it challenging to maintain high specialisation. Current intellectual property enforcement slows technical progress and open sharing of models that is needed in additive manufacturing. The development of additive manufacturing is affected by energy price and intellectual property enforcement. Automated additive manufacturing remove advantages of both low labour cost and specialisation, raising questions about the feasibility of the current export model for prosperity.},

howpublished = {The 8th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2023), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 19-21, 2023},

keywords = {3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Economic Models, Energy, Future Scenarios, Intellectual Property, Labor, Specialised Manufacturing, Sustainability},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {misc}

}