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2024
Nordling, Torbjörn E M
Shortage of artillery rounds in Ukraine—a reminder of the importance of mass manufacturing Miscellaneous
The 9th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2024), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 24-26, 2024, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: 3D printing, Artillery Rounds, CNC, Mass Manufacturing, Supply chain
@misc{Nordling2024IPCMMT,
title = {Shortage of artillery rounds in Ukraine—a reminder of the importance of mass manufacturing},
author = {Torbjörn E M Nordling},
url = {https://icpmmt.org/},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-05-01},
booktitle = {The 9th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2024), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 24-26, 2024},
pages = {1},
publisher = {Prof. Gow-Yi Tzou, ICPMMT, Taiwan},
abstract = {“For both Russia and Ukraine, artillery is the primary means of destruction of troops. Whoever retains fire superiority retains the initiative.” This is stated in an Estonian Ministry of Defence discussion paper “A military strategy for Ukraine's victory and Russia's defeat” (Dec. 2023), where they estimate that Ukraine requires a minimum of 200 000 rounds a month to maintain local fire superiority. Ukraine has asked EU for 250 000 rounds a month. This rate would deplete U.S. and European stockpiles in 2024, with current production estimated at 28 000 and 50 000 rounds a month, respectively. Russia is estimated to reach 3.5 million rounds produced or restored in 2023, i.e. 290 000 rounds a month, and expected to increase it to 375 000 rounds a month in 2024. Meanwhile U.S. aim to reach 100 000 per month in end of 2025. The EU seems to have ordered only 60 000 rounds via the European Defence Agency and it is unclear if EU will deliver the promised 1 million shells by March 2024.
While some suggest that orders are not being placed and a need to rethink process-centered procurement, most talk about a lack of manufacturing capacity and supply chain bottlenecks, e.g. a French parliamentary report (No. 865, 2023) mention delivery times of 10-20 months of unguided 155 mm artillery shells. EU has 15 companies capable of producing such shells, like Rheinmetall and Expal. U.S. has two facilities in Pennsylvania, with machinery dating back to the 2nd World War, and is building a new, largely automated one in Texas. U.S. has also contracted companies in Canada, India, Bulgaria, and Poland.
Manufacturing of the metal body of the shell takes the longest time to build up. This highlight the need to expand and maintain mass manufacturing capacity and also to investigate use of alternative manufacturing techniques to temporarily boost production. Could abundant CNC machines or metal 3D printing be used and at what price point? Rheinmetall has received $3 300 apiece for high-explosive rounds. The later could perhaps be used to make long-range precision guided shells, similar to Excalibur with an initial price of $150 000. Can they stand the pressure and heat?},
howpublished = {The 9th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2024), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 24-26, 2024},
keywords = {3D printing, Artillery Rounds, CNC, Mass Manufacturing, Supply chain},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
“For both Russia and Ukraine, artillery is the primary means of destruction of troops. Whoever retains fire superiority retains the initiative.” This is stated in an Estonian Ministry of Defence discussion paper “A military strategy for Ukraine's victory and Russia's defeat” (Dec. 2023), where they estimate that Ukraine requires a minimum of 200 000 rounds a month to maintain local fire superiority. Ukraine has asked EU for 250 000 rounds a month. This rate would deplete U.S. and European stockpiles in 2024, with current production estimated at 28 000 and 50 000 rounds a month, respectively. Russia is estimated to reach 3.5 million rounds produced or restored in 2023, i.e. 290 000 rounds a month, and expected to increase it to 375 000 rounds a month in 2024. Meanwhile U.S. aim to reach 100 000 per month in end of 2025. The EU seems to have ordered only 60 000 rounds via the European Defence Agency and it is unclear if EU will deliver the promised 1 million shells by March 2024.
While some suggest that orders are not being placed and a need to rethink process-centered procurement, most talk about a lack of manufacturing capacity and supply chain bottlenecks, e.g. a French parliamentary report (No. 865, 2023) mention delivery times of 10-20 months of unguided 155 mm artillery shells. EU has 15 companies capable of producing such shells, like Rheinmetall and Expal. U.S. has two facilities in Pennsylvania, with machinery dating back to the 2nd World War, and is building a new, largely automated one in Texas. U.S. has also contracted companies in Canada, India, Bulgaria, and Poland.
Manufacturing of the metal body of the shell takes the longest time to build up. This highlight the need to expand and maintain mass manufacturing capacity and also to investigate use of alternative manufacturing techniques to temporarily boost production. Could abundant CNC machines or metal 3D printing be used and at what price point? Rheinmetall has received $3 300 apiece for high-explosive rounds. The later could perhaps be used to make long-range precision guided shells, similar to Excalibur with an initial price of $150 000. Can they stand the pressure and heat?
While some suggest that orders are not being placed and a need to rethink process-centered procurement, most talk about a lack of manufacturing capacity and supply chain bottlenecks, e.g. a French parliamentary report (No. 865, 2023) mention delivery times of 10-20 months of unguided 155 mm artillery shells. EU has 15 companies capable of producing such shells, like Rheinmetall and Expal. U.S. has two facilities in Pennsylvania, with machinery dating back to the 2nd World War, and is building a new, largely automated one in Texas. U.S. has also contracted companies in Canada, India, Bulgaria, and Poland.
Manufacturing of the metal body of the shell takes the longest time to build up. This highlight the need to expand and maintain mass manufacturing capacity and also to investigate use of alternative manufacturing techniques to temporarily boost production. Could abundant CNC machines or metal 3D printing be used and at what price point? Rheinmetall has received $3 300 apiece for high-explosive rounds. The later could perhaps be used to make long-range precision guided shells, similar to Excalibur with an initial price of $150 000. Can they stand the pressure and heat?
2023
Nordling, Torbjörn E M
Forecasting Mega Trends Impact on Specialisation and Additive Manufacturing in Four Future Scenarios Miscellaneous
The 8th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2023), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 19-21, 2023, 2023.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: 3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Economic Models, Energy, Future Scenarios, Intellectual Property, Labor, Specialised Manufacturing, Sustainability
@misc{Nordling2023ICPMMT,
title = {Forecasting Mega Trends Impact on Specialisation and Additive Manufacturing in Four Future Scenarios},
author = {Torbjörn E M Nordling},
url = {https://icpmmt.org/},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-05-01},
booktitle = {The 8th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2023), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 19-21, 2023},
pages = {1},
publisher = {National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan},
abstract = {The dominating trend in manufacturing from early making of stone tools 2.5 million years ago until today is specialisation. Individuals, corporations, and regions are specialising in the making of a particular set of products or parts. Specialisation is the key enabler of learning and labour productivity gains. Additive manufacturing is a recent trend that, in part, counter specialisation. To some additive manufacturing is synonymous with 3D printing, but I argue, based on the underlaying principle, that e.g. modular building also is additive manufacturing. To me any deposition and joining of material or blocks is additive manufacturing. A hallmark of additive manufacturing is that it does not require specialised labour—at least not once the machine and designs used are made. This means that additive manufacturing machines/plants can be placed almost everywhere. Moreover, the total cost of the end customer is reduced by placing such manufacturing near the consumption.
Energy, knowledge, and transportation set the basis for both specialised and additive manufacturing. I define four future scenarios based on the former two: (A) energy abundance and open standards, (B) energy abundance with strong intellectual property enforcement, (C) energy scarcity and open standards, and (D) energy scarcity with strong intellectual property enforcement. To set the stage for analysis and discussion, I present historic examples and current mega trends that lead to the scenarios. E.g. energy abundance based on solar, wind, and hydro will most probably be achieved by countries that let the market forces guide energy investments based on current trends. The shrinking working age population make it challenging to maintain high specialisation. Current intellectual property enforcement slows technical progress and open sharing of models that is needed in additive manufacturing. The development of additive manufacturing is affected by energy price and intellectual property enforcement. Automated additive manufacturing remove advantages of both low labour cost and specialisation, raising questions about the feasibility of the current export model for prosperity.},
howpublished = {The 8th International Conference on Precision Machinery and Manufacturing Technology (ICPMMT 2023), Kenting, Pingtung, Taiwan, May 19-21, 2023},
keywords = {3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, Economic Models, Energy, Future Scenarios, Intellectual Property, Labor, Specialised Manufacturing, Sustainability},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
The dominating trend in manufacturing from early making of stone tools 2.5 million years ago until today is specialisation. Individuals, corporations, and regions are specialising in the making of a particular set of products or parts. Specialisation is the key enabler of learning and labour productivity gains. Additive manufacturing is a recent trend that, in part, counter specialisation. To some additive manufacturing is synonymous with 3D printing, but I argue, based on the underlaying principle, that e.g. modular building also is additive manufacturing. To me any deposition and joining of material or blocks is additive manufacturing. A hallmark of additive manufacturing is that it does not require specialised labour—at least not once the machine and designs used are made. This means that additive manufacturing machines/plants can be placed almost everywhere. Moreover, the total cost of the end customer is reduced by placing such manufacturing near the consumption.
Energy, knowledge, and transportation set the basis for both specialised and additive manufacturing. I define four future scenarios based on the former two: (A) energy abundance and open standards, (B) energy abundance with strong intellectual property enforcement, (C) energy scarcity and open standards, and (D) energy scarcity with strong intellectual property enforcement. To set the stage for analysis and discussion, I present historic examples and current mega trends that lead to the scenarios. E.g. energy abundance based on solar, wind, and hydro will most probably be achieved by countries that let the market forces guide energy investments based on current trends. The shrinking working age population make it challenging to maintain high specialisation. Current intellectual property enforcement slows technical progress and open sharing of models that is needed in additive manufacturing. The development of additive manufacturing is affected by energy price and intellectual property enforcement. Automated additive manufacturing remove advantages of both low labour cost and specialisation, raising questions about the feasibility of the current export model for prosperity.
Energy, knowledge, and transportation set the basis for both specialised and additive manufacturing. I define four future scenarios based on the former two: (A) energy abundance and open standards, (B) energy abundance with strong intellectual property enforcement, (C) energy scarcity and open standards, and (D) energy scarcity with strong intellectual property enforcement. To set the stage for analysis and discussion, I present historic examples and current mega trends that lead to the scenarios. E.g. energy abundance based on solar, wind, and hydro will most probably be achieved by countries that let the market forces guide energy investments based on current trends. The shrinking working age population make it challenging to maintain high specialisation. Current intellectual property enforcement slows technical progress and open sharing of models that is needed in additive manufacturing. The development of additive manufacturing is affected by energy price and intellectual property enforcement. Automated additive manufacturing remove advantages of both low labour cost and specialisation, raising questions about the feasibility of the current export model for prosperity.
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